Based on the July crop estimate by the Florida Agricultural Statistics Service, the 1994-95 Florida orange crop was 205.4 million boxes. Processed utilization for 1994-95 is estimated at 195 million boxes. FCOJ production was up 18.8% while imports, including miscellaneous supplies, are expected to be down 33.3%. Movement is expected to be up about 10.0%, resulting in an estimated carryover of 51.1 million 42ø Brix gallons or 9.9 weeks supply.
According to the Agricultural Attache, a record 345 million boxes are expected to be produced in Sao Paulo in 1995-96. Fresh utilization is expected to be a record 100 million boxes, leaving 245 million boxes for processing which would be about the same as in 1994-95.
Florida orange-juice production is expected to be up 7.2% in 1995-96, while Brazil's production is expected to be down 8.4% (down 13.8%, based on the Association of Brazilian Exporters of Citrus (ABECitrus) estimate of Sao Paulo orange-juice production). The estimated decline in Brazil's orange-juice production is based on the expectation of lower juice yields in 1995-96; high juice yields were experienced in the 1994-95 drought season.
Beginning stocks for 1995-96 are estimated to be down 2% in Brazil and 12.8% in Florida, for an aggregate decrease of 8.8%. Aggregate orange-juice production is estimated to be down 1.5% (down 4.5% based on the ABECitrus estimate). Overall orange-juice supplies (production plus inventories) are expected to decrease by about 2.4% (5.0% based on the ABECitrus estimate) in 1995-96.